(c) 2019 by BCMstrategy, Inc.

Predictive Analytics Point Towards a No-Deal BREXIT


For the last year or so, we have been in “stealth mode,” building out our policy risk measurement technology and predictive analytics. Translating unstructured data (words) from the policy process into structured data (numbers) that can support predictive analytics and quantification has been quite a journey. Stay tuned for updates and reflections on that journey as the year progresses.

The platform is currently available only to a small number of carefully selected Early Adopter customers as we beta test the platform and identify priority areas for refinements. A full product launch still lies in our future.

But Brexit is forcing our hand. The patented process indicates that Brexit this past week reached a tipping point. The developments are technical as well as numerous, so they often escape being captured by the media.

So we share today a sneak peek at some of our Brexit risk analytics.

Policymakers in the UK, the European Union, Australia, and EFTA (European Free Trade Area) have accelerated dramatically their preparations for a no-deal Brexit.


As our data above indicate, the volume of official sector action is now out-pacing official sector rhetoric. When action (the green line) exceeds rhetoric (the blue line), it signals that policymaking is moving into high gear. It signals that policymakers are not just posturing or bluffing their way through a negotiation. They are battening down their hatches to prepare for a No-Deal Brexit. They are putting into place rules and protocols that take effect automatically upon the event of a No-Deal Brexit.

The technical details matter more to businesses struggling to position themselves for Brexit Day far more than fiery rhetoric around the edges of meetings and parliamentary debates.

The sectoral distribution of the actions is both broad and deep, covering:

  • transportation,

  • the EU budget and economic surveillance process,

  • maritime corridors,

  • electronic freight documentation standards (while staying intriguingly silent on blockchain deployment opportunities),

  • security cooperation/Interpol,

  • supervision standards for EU financial firms with branches in "non-EU countries",

  • CCP equivalence determinations,

  • calculation of reference data in securities markets,

  • customs procedures,

  • cross-border cash regulations,

  • data protection/data privacy/GDPR, and

  • citizen rights.

They also include two efforts to strengthen strategic economic, financial and trade ties at opposite ends of the Brexit debate: (i) through increased maritime ties between Ireland, Netherlands, and France financed by the European Commission and (ii) through deeper financial regulatory cooperation between Australia and the UK.

Every day, the system captures, tags, measures and saves the technical activity that never makes major headlines alongside the news stories themselves. We get a 360-degree views of the policy reaction function daily and globally. Every day, we see policymakers create "break the glass" rules and frameworks that will be triggered immediately upon a No-Deal Brexit. It's quite a sight.

We are automatically capturing, analyzing, and dematerializing the policy reaction function daily, at processing speeds far faster than humans can read. The resulting data visualizations accelerate information intake, decrease information overload, and permit users to identify quickly the key developments that will be strategically significant for their businesses. They deliver enhanced cognition -- and significant operational efficiencies for users -- by automating many components of the analytical process....even though we are still in beta.

Everything is pointing towards a No-Deal Brexit right now. Buckle up.

#dataanalysis #predictiveanalytics #Brexit #UK #EU

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