Policy Risk Predictive Analytics -- Daily Momentum

The time series data created by our patented platform generates the most interest from capital market participants. It is easy to see why: concrete, objective, transparent data displaying relational behavior patterns lends itself beautifully to identifying deltas and risk relationships.


But in many respects, the daily momentum measurement delivers some powerful predictive analytics for users through enhanced cognition. Specifically, the daily momentum measurement makes it easy to navigate through the noise of the news cycle to see what policymakers are saying and doing. By capturing global public policy activity every 24 hours, users need never worry about missing a development because they were in a meeting or focused on deliverables.


Today's momentum measurement provides a good case study to illustrate the point.


The relative activity levels intuitively look correct. The trade policy negotiations associated with the UK's exit from the EU alongside growing concerns regarding the adverse economic impact of the coronavirus on global trade flows and the references to trade policy in last night's State of the Union address to Congress in the United States all deliver a busy 24 hours for trade policy. It would have been surprising to see another issue as being more active.


But drilling into the details with one click already delivers a more nuanced picture of policy momentum that goes beyond superficial headline reading:


While Brexit and the USMCA collectively represent the majority of activity, the WTO, energy, and digital tax issues also are in play. The intersections among these issues are visible in the documents delivering this measurement momentum. In addition, policymakers are taking many more actions than most media outlets report. Digging in to the detail with one click again into the highest aggregation of activity (trade + EU) delivers yet more insight....before a document has even been read:

Activity levels are diverse both in terms of activity types and in terms of geographic distribution. The links associated with the chart on the left deliver the latest monetary policy report from the Bank of Japan alongside documents from the WTO and the BIS in addition to the expected flurry of document releases from the UK government as it sharpens its trade policy objectives vis-à-vis the European Union.


A strategist or and advocate has spent less than 30 seconds navigating through these screens. Within that time, a number of documents that receive little media attention are now on the radar screen. Rather than wasting time reading opinion and commentary about the headline news, a savvy strategist now allocate time more efficiently and effectively to a series of documents that provide greater insight into policy trajectories than the average media article. The media articles are on our platform as well, providing context.


When the strategist access the documents (which we have stored and time stamped in our data lake), he or she can also read smarter and faster because all key terms have been highlighted. But that is another story for another day.


So why capital market participants become excited about the time series, we remain excited about the efficiencies and enhanced insights delivered by the daily momentum measurements. If you give us 15 minutes of your morning, we can guarantee that you will be more in tune with global policy trajectories than any other insight provider.


These are exciting times at the frontier of the data revolution. Let us show you how this kind of alternative data can help insulate you from headline risk and can augment your ability to operate strategically even when the policy environment is volatile. If you would like more information or a live demo, let us know.

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