As we all pivot towards 2020, some context and perspective will help strategists and analysts everywhere start the new year ready for anything.
The good news is that so far the warm up for 1Q2020 is substantially more subdued compared to last year. 2019 started with near-hysteria over trade wars.....but we ended with positive traction towards passage of the USMCA, with a (small) bilateral deal in principle between the United States and China. In the FinTech and cryptocurrency corner, policymakers by this time last year had not yet articulated concrete policy directions concerning digital currencies. Many still held out hope that Brexit could be reversed. Regardless of your view of the Brexit/election outcome in 4Q2019, many are at least relieved to have clarity regarding policy trajectory.
Do not mistake calm for continuity. Just as correlation does not necessarily indicate causation, calm in the public policy arena does not necessarily indicate continuity.
In 2020, a number of factors hold the potential for generating significant volatility as new policymakers enter the geopolitical fray with incentives to make a difference, change policy trajectory, or otherwise shake things up. In fact, a large number of major global posts are now occupied by new leaders with zero previous internal institutional engagement at the entities they are now running. In particular:
The European Commission
The European Central Bank
The Bank for International Settlements Innovation Hub (itself a new entity)
The International Monetary Fund
And then there are the United States election in November (which routinely generates policy fireworks even when impeachment is not on the table) and Saudi Arabia's leadership of the Group of Twenty.
So before you return to your hectic schedule, before information overload returns in full force, before the noise of the news cycle hits full volume again, devote 30 minutes to the policy strategy equivalence of mindful meditation -- spend thirty minutes focusing on the big picture and reflecting on the arc of policy that emerged during 2019.
We can help.
Using transparent, objective data drawn directly from the public policy cycle, we have spent the last year using advanced technology to monitor, measure, and .analyze emerging macro-policy trends in multiple issue areas. We have organized last year's macro-strategy blogposts into three e-books organized by topic. They are available for download FOR FREE from our website HERE. The topics are:
The Global Macro Blogposts (2019): Roughly 30 pages of analysis and research highlighting how the collision of technology and geopolitical rebalancing create deep fissures in the global economy and generate real challenges for policymakers both domestically and internationally.
Cryptocurrency Macro-Trend Analysis: Identifies the policy shifts underway globally in the first half of 2019 long before Facebook's Libra proposal. Using charts and graphs from our platform, it also identifies emerging policy responses as they unfolded during autumn 2019. As policymakers pivot towards focusing on interconnectedness/interoperability, data privacy, consumer protection, and activity-based regulation, these 50 pages will be the most efficient and effective way for you to prepare for how policymakers will build on this initial foundation during 2020.
Trade Policy: The 2019 Blogposts: We devote 20 pages to the theme that dominated our attention during 2019. And no, it really was not trade wars. The noise of the news cycle and the policy posturing may have all focused on traditional trade tools (tariffs, trade negotiations regarding agriculture, steel and cars) but we were focused like a laser on how trade negotiators and policymakers were positioning to tackle the more economically significant services and digital sectors. From China in January to the USMCA in December, if you missed this part of the trade policy dramas that unfolded in 2019, this book will help catch you up quickly and efficiently.
Brexit -- Post-Election Analysis: Together with colleagues at Brexit Partners, BCMstrategy, Inc. is using its platform data to identify policy trajectories and pressure points as Europe and the UK finally prepare for the UK's exit. The inaugural analysis from mid-December is avaialble for free download now.
We will pick up the thread of policy again next week. So stay tuned as this blog continues to identify strategic inflection points in multiple policy areas powered by advanced technology. Follow our blog or subscribe to our publications to receive regular analysis regarding specific issues.
Please contact us directly if your company would like to participate in a Pilot Program or explore Early Adopter opportunities for enter-rise wide deployment of our platform data aad visualizations.