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Early this morning, the President of the Deutsche Bundesbank gave a wide-ranging interview to Bloomberg. The interview covers the intricacies of IMF SDR policy (which shows the United States and Germany effectively on the same page regarding this issue) and the various European economic and banking sector emergency measures to address the economic fallout from the pandemic.

But the most striking sentences involve the policy trend projection. The stark honesty is sobering:

Scenario analysis designers and risk managers everywhere must begin immediately to assess whether their assumptions and parameter settings regarding economic trends and credit risk profiles are sufficiently stringent.

As we noted in mid-March, The Long Haul Starts Now.


BCMstrategy, Inc. is a start-up company using patented technology to automatically measure and analyze global public policy developments. The company began tracking daily global COVID19 activity in late February 2020, which means the company has captured in its time series the full global reaction cycle for this issue as it occurs. For more information and to get started using the next generation of policy intelligence tools, please visit

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