Scenario Analysis

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2 days ago
5 min

Public Policy Parameterization -- Default Probabilities

Which brings us to 2020 and the Pandemic Problem. The pandemic amplifies further the potential for misleading analysis regarding default pr

3 days ago
2 min

Public Policy Parameterization -- Pandemic Edition

When August vacations are over, many of the pandemic-era policies will have to be renewed, expanded, or eliminated. Every decision amplifie

Jul 27
2 min

LIBOR Webinar -- Sneak Peek for blog readers

Our early stage technology (the PolicyScope Platform and our daily PolicyScope Risk Monitor) is out-performing a major global law firm.

Jul 23
1 min

Mitigating LIBOR Transition Risk - Webinar

Insights on how to mitigate the risks firms face from accelerating policy efforts to implement the LIBOR transition.

Jul 16
4 min

The COVID-19 Economy - Year-End Horizon Looks Grim

Today's FSB Report suggests strongly that we will not have to wait until 4Q2020 to see banking system stress. The report makes clear that "

Jul 9
1 min

Webinar -- LIBOR Transition Issues

Details regarding how to access our July 29 webinar on strategic issues raised by the LIBOR transition.

Jul 1
3 min

USMCA Implementation Today

At the height of the pandemic lockdown globally in March and April, trade officials regionally and bipartisan political cooperation in the U

Jun 29
5 min

Scenario Analysis Hard Truth: No Easy Short Cuts Exist

The good news is that pandemic-era data deficits and climate change risk management priorities arise at the beginning of the data revolu

Jun 26
5 min

Scenario Analysis Misconceptions (3 of 3): AI is the Answer

Debunking the idea that offloading scenario analysis to AI systems is a robust method for measuring exposure to public policy risks.

Jun 22
4 min

Scenario Analysis Misconceptions (2 of 3): Event Risk Random Variables

Explaining why and how public policy risks are not random variables. Access to concrete data helps significantly.

Jun 18
4 min

Scenario Analysis Misconceptions (1 of 3): The Random Walk

So far this week, we have explored pandemic-era challenges for scenario analysis designers due to Two Data Deficits and Why Data Deficits...

Jun 16
5 min

Why Pandemic-Era Data Deficits Matter

Structural breaks in a data series create real challenges for risk forecasting. Among other things, decisions must be made (with sparse dat

Jun 15
4 min

Two Data Deficits

One of the many consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic is that it creates real gaps in structured economic data from which financial and

Jun 12
1 min

QOTD - Pandemic Economic Policy

Increasingly, central bankers are all converging on a consensus position. Their message is clear: even if the pandemic were miraculously to

May 18
3 min

Next-Gen Data-Driven Scenario Analysis

How COVID19 requires policy risk nowcasting and an increased focus on scenario analysis.

May 15
1 min

QOTD -- COVID19 Meets Climate Risk

How BIS economists are starting to view policy options regarding pandemics and climate change.

May 13
2 min

QOTD -- Federal Reserve Rings Alarm Bells

Federal Reserve joins BoJ and ECB in raising red flags about the economic cycle.

May 13
2 min

QOTD- #Trade + #Brexit + Japan = Global Rebalancing

What today's UK free trade strategy regarding Japan tells us about future Brexit and trade policy trajectories.

May 11
1 min

QOTD -- Japan Rings Alarm Bells

It is not every day that a central bank sounds alarmist. Today's BOJ minutes make for sobering reading.

May 4
4 min

Opportunities Amid #Pandemic Disruption

Shifts in trade policies, digital taxation policy, data privacy requirements, and ultimately the withdrawal of emergency economic lifeline

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