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Feb 8
2 min

Conquering Headline Risk Step 2: Our Feb. 10 PRMIA Webinar

After you successful distinguish political risk from policy risk (See Step 1 HERE), risk managers and strategists must start the process...

Jan 21
1 min

The New Verticals: Climate Risk, Big Tech, Digital Currency

We are thrilled to announce that BCMstrategy, Inc. is meeting the moment by expanding the precision and scope of the PolicyScope...

Jan 12
3 min

Conquering Headline Risk: Step 1

The first step to solving a problem is to identify that it exists. Headline risk is no exception. Investors and risk managers who think...

Jan 11
1 min

Webinar January 14: PolicyRisk Nowcasting

As noted in our blogpost last week, we have decided that January 2021 is PolicyRisk Nowcasting month. Dramatic and disruptive political...

Jan 5
2 min

What Comes Next -- Data-Driven Policy Nowcasting

Towards the end of December, while recording Episode 79 of "That Annuity Show," the inevitable question arose: what does 2020 data imply...

Dec 15, 2020
3 min

PolicyScope Data + Bloomberg = Superforecasting for Investors

Earlier today, BCMstrategy, Inc. announced that our PolicyScope datasets are now available to capital market participants through the...

Dec 2, 2020
3 min

LIBOR Transition Data: Catching the Wave

Active policy formation processes provide excellent examples of how alternative data sourced from the public policy process can deliver...

Oct 6, 2020
4 min

The 3-Way #CBDC Race is On

The steady year-long momentum increase in sovereign digital currencies -- interrupted only by COVID-19 -- continues to intensify. As...

Oct 1, 2020
4 min

Bracing for Hard #BREXIT

Earlier today, the European Union (EU) formally filed suit against the United Kingdom in protest over the UK's Internal Markets Bill that,

Sep 30, 2020
1 min

Webinar -- How To Use #AlternativeData in #AI-driven Scenario Analysis

For some time, we have been writing about pandemic-era data gaps and the implications they hold for risk management in general and...

Sep 22, 2020
2 min

Pandemic Era Data Gaps Documented

We have to take a victory lap. A major central bank just released research validating a point we have been making all summer. about data...

Sep 14, 2020
3 min

Data-Driven Policy Intel -- Monetary Policy & FX Rates Case Study

What does data-driven predictive analytics look like when it comes to public policy risk? When we receive this question, the answer is...

Sep 10, 2020
4 min

The COVID-19 Economy -- Initial Data, Policy Implications

Brexit and Congressional dramas concerning fiscal policy in the United States dominate headlines and have been roiling stock markets all...

Aug 11, 2020
5 min

Public Policy Parameterization -- Default Probabilities

Which brings us to 2020 and the Pandemic Problem. The pandemic amplifies further the potential for misleading analysis regarding default pr

Aug 10, 2020
2 min

Public Policy Parameterization -- Pandemic Edition

When August vacations are over, many of the pandemic-era policies will have to be renewed, expanded, or eliminated. Every decision amplifie

Aug 3, 2020
5 min

FinTech Fishing Expedition

During July, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) released a report recommending a range of mechanisms to improve data gathering con

Jun 29, 2020
5 min

Scenario Analysis Hard Truth: No Easy Short Cuts Exist

The good news is that pandemic-era data deficits and climate change risk management priorities arise at the beginning of the data revolu

Jun 22, 2020
4 min

Scenario Analysis Misconceptions (2 of 3): Event Risk Random Variables

Explaining why and how public policy risks are not random variables. Access to concrete data helps significantly.

Jun 18, 2020
3 min

Scenario Analysis Misconceptions (1 of 3): The Random Walk

So far this week, we have explored pandemic-era challenges for scenario analysis designers due to Two Data Deficits and Why Data Deficits...

Jun 16, 2020
5 min

Why Pandemic-Era Data Deficits Matter

Structural breaks in a data series create real challenges for risk forecasting. Among other things, decisions must be made (with sparse dat

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