Superforecasting

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Oct 16
4 min

#BREXIT Intensifies

Assessing what the last 24 hours in the Brexit arena tell us about what comes next. Describing five implications.

Oct 1
4 min

Bracing for Hard #BREXIT

Earlier today, the European Union (EU) formally filed suit against the United Kingdom in protest over the UK's Internal Markets Bill that,

Sep 30
1 min

Webinar -- How To Use #AlternativeData in #AI-driven Scenario Analysis

For some time, we have been writing about pandemic-era data gaps and the implications they hold for risk management in general and scenar...

Sep 22
2 min

Pandemic Era Data Gaps Documented

We have to take a victory lap. A major central bank just released research validating a point we have been making all summer. about data...

Sep 10
4 min

The COVID-19 Economy -- Initial Data, Policy Implications

Brexit and Congressional dramas concerning fiscal policy in the United States dominate headlines and have been roiling stock markets all w...

Aug 11
5 min

Public Policy Parameterization -- Default Probabilities

Which brings us to 2020 and the Pandemic Problem. The pandemic amplifies further the potential for misleading analysis regarding default pr

Jul 23
1 min

Mitigating LIBOR Transition Risk - Webinar

Insights on how to mitigate the risks firms face from accelerating policy efforts to implement the LIBOR transition.

Jul 9
1 min

Webinar -- LIBOR Transition Issues

Details regarding how to access our July 29 webinar on strategic issues raised by the LIBOR transition.

Jun 22
4 min

Scenario Analysis Misconceptions (2 of 3): Event Risk Random Variables

Explaining why and how public policy risks are not random variables. Access to concrete data helps significantly.

Jun 18
4 min

Scenario Analysis Misconceptions (1 of 3): The Random Walk

So far this week, we have explored pandemic-era challenges for scenario analysis designers due to Two Data Deficits and Why Data Deficits...

Jun 16
5 min

Why Pandemic-Era Data Deficits Matter

Structural breaks in a data series create real challenges for risk forecasting. Among other things, decisions must be made (with sparse dat

May 18
3 min

Next-Gen Data-Driven Scenario Analysis

How COVID19 requires policy risk nowcasting and an increased focus on scenario analysis.

May 14
1 min

Webinar Announcement: Pandemic Policymaking (Round 2)

Are you ready for the next round of pandemic policymaking? Join us May 21 for a webinar using data-driven analysis to assess policy trends.

Mar 26
4 min

The G20 and the Limits of International Cooperation

As expected, the G20 statement provided a conceptual overview of the range of policies put into place over the last month at the nati

Mar 25
1 min

COMPANY ANNOUNCEMENT -- Seed Stage Investment Acquired

Announcing significant seed stage funding.

Mar 15
6 min

The Long Haul Starts Now: COVID19 Policy Implications from Here

What policy options do G7 heads of state and government have as they prepare to meet tomorrow? This post assess the options.

Mar 10
5 min

QOTD -- COVID19, of course

Assessing what policy actions in the last 24 hours globally tell us about preferred and likely policy trajectories to address COVID economic

Mar 6
7 min

COVID19 Policy Trajectories From Here

This post first provides some concrete data to help generate solid analysis. It then unpacks the main policy toolkits available to governme

Feb 26
4 min

Trade and Economic Growth -- Coronavirus Questions

Even if mortality rates remain low, substitution effects will power shifts in consumption beyond the tourism and transportation sectors.

Feb 25
2 min

QOTD -- Macropru + IFRS

The third important but highly technical regulatory policy shift this month in Europe.

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