Superforecasting

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6 days ago
3 min

Conquering Headline Risk: Step 1

The first step to solving a problem is to identify that it exists. Headline risk is no exception. Investors and risk managers who think ...

Jan 11
1 min

Webinar January 14: PolicyRisk Nowcasting

As noted in our blogpost last week, we have decided that January 2021 is PolicyRisk Nowcasting month. Dramatic and disruptive political ...

Jan 5
2 min

What Comes Next -- Data-Driven Policy Nowcasting

Towards the end of December, while recording Episode 79 of "That Annuity Show," the inevitable question arose: what does 2020 data imply ...

Dec 15, 2020
3 min

PolicyScope Data + Bloomberg = Superforecasting for Investors

Earlier today, BCMstrategy, Inc. announced that our PolicyScope datasets are now available to capital market participants through the Blo...

Oct 16, 2020
4 min

#BREXIT Intensifies

Assessing what the last 24 hours in the Brexit arena tell us about what comes next. Describing five implications.

Oct 1, 2020
4 min

Bracing for Hard #BREXIT

Earlier today, the European Union (EU) formally filed suit against the United Kingdom in protest over the UK's Internal Markets Bill that,

Sep 30, 2020
1 min

Webinar -- How To Use #AlternativeData in #AI-driven Scenario Analysis

For some time, we have been writing about pandemic-era data gaps and the implications they hold for risk management in general and scenar...

Sep 22, 2020
2 min

Pandemic Era Data Gaps Documented

We have to take a victory lap. A major central bank just released research validating a point we have been making all summer. about data...

Sep 10, 2020
4 min

The COVID-19 Economy -- Initial Data, Policy Implications

Brexit and Congressional dramas concerning fiscal policy in the United States dominate headlines and have been roiling stock markets all w...

Aug 11, 2020
5 min

Public Policy Parameterization -- Default Probabilities

Which brings us to 2020 and the Pandemic Problem. The pandemic amplifies further the potential for misleading analysis regarding default pr

Jun 22, 2020
4 min

Scenario Analysis Misconceptions (2 of 3): Event Risk Random Variables

Explaining why and how public policy risks are not random variables. Access to concrete data helps significantly.

Jun 18, 2020
3 min

Scenario Analysis Misconceptions (1 of 3): The Random Walk

So far this week, we have explored pandemic-era challenges for scenario analysis designers due to Two Data Deficits and Why Data Deficits...

Jun 16, 2020
5 min

Why Pandemic-Era Data Deficits Matter

Structural breaks in a data series create real challenges for risk forecasting. Among other things, decisions must be made (with sparse dat

May 18, 2020
3 min

Next-Gen Data-Driven Scenario Analysis

How COVID19 requires policy risk nowcasting and an increased focus on scenario analysis.

May 14, 2020
1 min

Webinar Announcement: Pandemic Policymaking (Round 2)

Are you ready for the next round of pandemic policymaking? Join us May 21 for a webinar using data-driven analysis to assess policy trends.

Mar 26, 2020
4 min

The G20 and the Limits of International Cooperation

As expected, the G20 statement provided a conceptual overview of the range of policies put into place over the last month at the nati

Mar 25, 2020
1 min

COMPANY ANNOUNCEMENT -- Seed Stage Investment Acquired

Announcing significant seed stage funding.

Mar 15, 2020
6 min

The Long Haul Starts Now: COVID19 Policy Implications from Here

What policy options do G7 heads of state and government have as they prepare to meet tomorrow? This post assess the options.

Mar 10, 2020
5 min

QOTD -- COVID19, of course

Assessing what policy actions in the last 24 hours globally tell us about preferred and likely policy trajectories to address COVID economic

Mar 6, 2020
7 min

COVID19 Policy Trajectories From Here

This post first provides some concrete data to help generate solid analysis. It then unpacks the main policy toolkits available to governme

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