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Aug 12, 2020
1 min

No Summer Vacation for LIBOR in Japan

Regular blog readers are familiar with the steady -- and increasingly urgent -- drumbeat from central banks, regulators and finance minis...

Aug 11, 2020
5 min

Public Policy Parameterization -- Default Probabilities

Which brings us to 2020 and the Pandemic Problem. The pandemic amplifies further the potential for misleading analysis regarding default pr

Aug 10, 2020
2 min

Public Policy Parameterization -- Pandemic Edition

When August vacations are over, many of the pandemic-era policies will have to be renewed, expanded, or eliminated. Every decision amplifie

Aug 6, 2020
1 min

Stablecoins and the Bank of England -- The FPC Speaks

Initial euphoria and boosterism regarding pandemic-era increases in contactless payments amid a broadly permissive policy environments is...

Aug 6, 2020
2 min

How To Manage LIBOR Transition Risks

LIBOR for decades was the world’s most widely used benchmark for short-term rates. But the transition now occurs amid a global pandemic...

Aug 3, 2020
5 min

FinTech Fishing Expedition

During July, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) released a report recommending a range of mechanisms to improve data gathering con

Jul 24, 2020
2 min

Still Under Construction: €STR

The European Central Bank today proved our point. They just issued LIBOR transition proposals regarding the optimal mechanisms for gen

Jul 22, 2020
3 min

Cryptocurrency Policy on the Upswing

In the last few days, activity levels on cryptocurrency policy started to spike from multiple jurisdictions,

Jul 16, 2020
4 min

The COVID-19 Economy - Year-End Horizon Looks Grim

Today's FSB Report suggests strongly that we will not have to wait until 4Q2020 to see banking system stress. The report makes clear that "

Jul 1, 2020
3 min

USMCA Implementation Today

At the height of the pandemic lockdown globally in March and April, trade officials regionally and bipartisan political cooperation in the U

Jun 29, 2020
5 min

Scenario Analysis Hard Truth: No Easy Short Cuts Exist

The good news is that pandemic-era data deficits and climate change risk management priorities arise at the beginning of the data revolu

Jun 26, 2020
5 min

Scenario Analysis Misconceptions (3 of 3): AI is the Answer

Debunking the idea that offloading scenario analysis to AI systems is a robust method for measuring exposure to public policy risks.

Jun 22, 2020
4 min

Scenario Analysis Misconceptions (2 of 3): Event Risk Random Variables

Explaining why and how public policy risks are not random variables. Access to concrete data helps significantly.

Jun 18, 2020
3 min

Scenario Analysis Misconceptions (1 of 3): The Random Walk

So far this week, we have explored pandemic-era challenges for scenario analysis designers due to Two Data Deficits and Why Data Deficits...

Jun 16, 2020
5 min

Why Pandemic-Era Data Deficits Matter

Structural breaks in a data series create real challenges for risk forecasting. Among other things, decisions must be made (with sparse dat

Jun 15, 2020
4 min

Two Data Deficits

One of the many consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic is that it creates real gaps in structured economic data from which financial and

Jun 12, 2020
1 min

QOTD - Pandemic Economic Policy

Increasingly, central bankers are all converging on a consensus position. Their message is clear: even if the pandemic were miraculously to

Jun 8, 2020
5 min

What Comes Next -- Product Expansion

“Going back to normal” is no longer an option. Two weeks of primarily peaceful protests alongside looting and civil unrest particularly ...

May 19, 2020
1 min

The Definitive #COVID19 Quote

The definitive COVID19 quote, from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell.

May 18, 2020
3 min

Next-Gen Data-Driven Scenario Analysis

How COVID19 requires policy risk nowcasting and an increased focus on scenario analysis.

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